Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 1.396908 1.449913 1.504565 1.565286 1.631055 1.700360 1.779195
2025-12-28 1.338537 1.410294 1.486559 1.574135 1.672545 1.780474 1.908864
2026-01-04 1.302148 1.388027 1.481509 1.591768 1.719541 1.864614 2.044308
2026-01-11 1.258710 1.353715 1.459059 1.585964 1.736743 1.912965 2.139008
2026-01-18 1.225637 1.328427 1.444272 1.586503 1.759406 1.967072 2.242658
2026-01-25 1.181632 1.287987 1.409286 1.560334 1.747171 1.976360 2.288859
2026-02-01 1.151994 1.262705 1.390475 1.551862 1.755064 2.009880 2.367537
2026-02-08 1.124307 1.238368 1.371379 1.541522 1.759208 2.037771 2.439596
2026-02-15 1.098617 1.215291 1.352612 1.530276 1.760929 2.061684 2.506936
2026-02-22 1.082369 1.202837 1.346037 1.533610 1.781072 2.110611 2.613259
2026-03-01 1.053209 1.173668 1.317718 1.507825 1.761126 2.102909 2.634271
2026-03-08 1.031430 1.152881 1.299075 1.493623 1.755724 2.114687 2.685158
2026-03-15 1.010366 1.132827 1.281232 1.480426 1.751897 2.129586 2.744205
2026-03-22 1.002190 1.128444 1.282875 1.492656 1.783247 2.196781 2.893647
2026-03-29 0.997466 1.128115 1.289491 1.511508 1.824491 2.281095 3.081695
2026-04-05 0.983608 1.115795 1.280162 1.508281 1.833826 2.317220 3.189797
2026-04-12 0.972646 1.106819 1.274817 1.510135 1.850352 2.365272 3.325257
2026-04-19 0.952115 1.085104 1.252186 1.487278 1.829364 2.352087 3.342846
2026-04-26 0.938881 1.072473 1.241173 1.480172 1.831380 2.376021 3.435481
2026-05-03 0.925496 1.059340 1.229129 1.471155 1.829988 2.394029 3.518234
2026-05-10 0.912313 1.046184 1.216714 1.461167 1.826585 2.408265 3.594783
2026-05-17 0.904829 1.040248 1.213740 1.464391 1.843403 2.457617 3.753409
2026-05-24 0.887521 1.021138 1.192621 1.440960 1.817806 2.431912 3.741365